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Mark Toth

Ph.D. candidate in economics

About me


I am a Ph.D. candidate in economics at the University of Bonn.

My work combines quantitative modeling, geospatial data, and housing market analysis to study how regional differences shape economic outcomes.

Papers

Residential concentration dampens monetary policy transmission

Available here.

Abstract: This paper analyzes how the spatial structure of housing affects monetary policy transmission. I integrate spatial structure into a monetary business cycle model with housing. Spatial structure matters economically through households' location preferences and residential externalities. These two features are reflected in two measures of residential concentration. Higher residential concentration dampens consumption responses to interest rate changes through housing demand. In an empirical analysis, I create model-consistent measures of residential concentration for US and Eurozone regions, using geospatial data based on satellite imagery. I empirically validate the model's predictions in a state-dependent local projections framework. My paper identifies residential concentration as a fundamental determinant of monetary policy transmission.
Presentations: Cologne (09/2025, VfS) | Bordeaux (08/2025, EEA) | Seoul (08/2025, ESWC) | Reading (06/2025) | Berlin (03/2025, UEA) | Dortmund (02/2025, RGS)

Spatial distribution of housing liquidity

With Francisco Amaral and Jonas Zdrzalek.
Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 26-12.

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between location, liquidity, and prices in housing markets. We construct spatial datasets for German and US cities and show that liquidity and prices decline with distance to the city center. To rationalize these patterns, we develop a spatial model of housing search. Location preferences concentrate buyers in central areas, generating tighter markets that are more liquid and command higher prices.  Counterfactuals show that increasing search efficiency raises welfare and prices, especially in peripheral areas. Our findings highlight the importance of demand-side preferences and market tightness for understanding liquidity and asset prices.
Presentations: Zurich (06/2025, SFI)* | Washington, D.C. (05/2025, AREUEA)* | Oxford (04/2025)* | Bern (02/2025, CRED)* | St. Gallen (11/2024)* | Cambridge (10/2024)* | Madison (10/2024)* | Faro (07/2024, PEJ)* | Vienna (06/2024) | Copenhagen (06/2024, UEA) | Toulouse (05/2024, ECHOPPE)*
*presentation by coauthor

Spatial macroprudential policy

Abstract: This paper examines how spatial variation in mortgage leverage matters for macroprudential policy. Using mortgage data from the United States and Germany, we establish two novel stylized facts: (1) loan-to-value (LTV) ratios are significantly lower and (2) debt-to-income (DTI) ratios are significantly higher in expensive urban regions. Building a structural model of regional bank lending, we argue that this spatial heterogeneity limits the effectiveness of nationwide regulatory caps on leverage. Our findings highlight the importance of tailoring macroprudential tools to regional housing market conditions.

Other

nightlightstats: An R package for analyzing nighttime light statistics

With Jakob Miethe. Available on GitHub.

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